Published: Dec 15, 2021 at 02: 25 PM

NFL franchises spend contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In tell to know an edge, teams wish to make spend of the soft data within the soft approach at the soft time. This vogue distilling, interpreting and applying most efficient basically the most influential data in a framework that accounts for personnel, opponents and evolving game eventualities. My honest is to be YOUR analytics division. Each week this season, I wish to give you the results you want by providing a search into which numbers flag in my models as basically the most impactful … or basically the most misunderstood.

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This week I took a deeper dive into the AFC — the set 10 teams dangle a worthwhile listing — to appear at at most seemingly division winners and every crew’s playoff seemingly. I also took a search at which teams are presumably to murder the one and most efficient bye. There’s loads restful left to be made up our minds, nonetheless here is what 300,000 simulations of every and every closing long-established season game published.

NOTE: The odds for every crew to lift its division cited under are supplied by Caesars, fresh as of 1: 30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 15.

Projected to murder playoffs: 98.4%

The largest shift within the mannequin for the Pats would happen over the next two weeks. In the occasion that they beat the Bills in Week 16, they stable the East. In the occasion that they beat the Colts on Saturday and the Bills within the next weekend, they project as overwhelming favorites to lock up the discontinuance seed within the AFC.

Projected to murder playoffs: 84.9%

The Bills wish to beat the Pats in Week 16 and earn some relief from the Colts on Saturday in tell to lift the division. Just correct news for Bills fans: No topic the discontinuance consequence in Week 16, my models restful dangle Buffalo reaching the playoffs.

Projected to murder playoffs: 7.8%

The Dolphins must lift out and earn somewhat a pair of relief to receive their approach into the playoffs. Their presumably impact on the postseason is to potentially play spoiler. Ought to restful they beat the Saints in Week 16, they’d slither Unusual Orleans’ hopes and relief propel an NFC East crew (seemingly the Eagles and even WFT) into the tournament. 

Projected to murder playoffs: 0.0%

The Jets’ most seemingly draft web page is fourth general (65.9 percent). They defend within the discontinuance 5 of the draft in 97.2 percent of my simulations.

Projected to murder playoffs: 75.6%

No topic it now not being a divisional game, the Ravens can relief themselves out basically the most within the occasion that they upset the Packers this week. In the occasion that they drop to Green Bay, then it presumably comes the total draw down to Week 16 towards the Bengals to your total division.

Projected to murder playoffs: 55.5%

The Bengals’ most pivotal closing matchup is Week 16’s tilt with the Ravens, which is at probability of establish the division winner. My mannequin has the Bengals topping the Broncos this week, losing a coin-toss matchup with the Ravens and falling to the Chiefs in Week 17 earlier than simply a dinky of edging out Cleveland in Week 18.

Projected to murder playoffs: 30.3%

The Browns are obviously in a tricky space as they navigate COVID-19 disorders. They need some relief from Ravens and Bengals opponents to murder the playoffs, nonetheless within the occasion that they lift their next three video games — and even lift all nonetheless their Week 16 tilt with Green Bay — a Week 18 matchup with the Bengals would possibly discontinuance up as a play-in game. Browns fans must always restful be rooting for the Packers to beat the Ravens this week, and then for the Bengals to defeat Baltimore in Week 16.

Projected to murder playoffs: 9.7%

The Steelers wish to in level of truth lift out (vs. Titans, at Chiefs, vs. Browns, at Ravens) to murder a playoff berth. There are a pair of paths that would possibly restful consequence within the postseason even with a Week 18 loss, at the side of Pittsburgh worthwhile its next three video games and then getting some relief, nonetheless these scenarios, while now not unattainable, are all highly remarkable.

Projected to murder playoffs: 90.2%

If the Titans lift out, they tend to murder the discontinuance seed within the AFC, and as a consequence of this truth a bye within the first round of the playoffs. Alternatively, the presumably final consequence is for Tennessee to lose one extra game and lift the division title. After all, the Titans are restful at probability of lift the AFC South even within the occasion that they lose two extra video games. They restful murder the playoffs in my models although the worst-case scenario plays out and they develop now not lift yet any other long-established-season game.

Projected to murder playoffs: 70.3%

Saturday’s matchup with the Pats is the largest playoff domino the Colts dangle control over. Since they dangle most efficient one game left towards a division opponent (the Jaguars in Week 18), Indianapolis needs some relief from the Titans’ closing opponents to lift the division, and the crew would also delight in the AFC North squads beating every diverse up honest a dinky extra.

Projected to murder playoffs: 0.0%

Houston is presumably to murder the third general purchase within the 2022 NFL Draft (74.5 percent of simulations). Ought to restful the Texans drop to the Jaguars on Sunday — the Jags are most long-established, nonetheless my mannequin forecasts the Texans to drag the upset — they’d be presumably to murder the 2d general purchase (76.7 percent).

Projected to murder playoffs: 0.0%

The Jaguars discontinuance up with the 2022 NFL Draft’s first general purchase in 19.3 percent of my simulations, with the No. 2 purchase being their presumably destination (78.4 percent).

Projected to murder playoffs: 99.1%

The Chiefs would follow the ideal-probability route of securing the division title by beating the Chargers on Thursday night (a game Kansas Metropolis is most long-established to lift). Defeating the Bolts will build them over 79.1 percent to lift the AFC West. The Chiefs’ probabilities for the first-round playoff bye lie basically in this week’s matchup with L.A. along with their Week 17 game towards the Bengals. As of now, they murder the bye in 55.4 percent of simulations. In the occasion that they lift on Thursday, it shifts as much as 59.2 percent.

Projected to murder playoffs: 55.4%

The Chargers and Bengals are neck and neck to murder the playoffs (0.1 percent separates their probabilities). Ought to restful the Chargers upset the Chiefs in Week 15, that will seemingly be a game-changer (a season-changer, too). With a lift over Kansas Metropolis, the Bolts’ probabilities to lift the division shoot as much as 62.8 percent. That’d also snort up a pivotal Week 17 matchup with the Broncos. A lift there would possibly build L.A. in pole web page for a prime-round bye heading into Week 18.

Projected to murder playoffs: 18.4%

In my models, even with a loss in Week 18 to the Chiefs, the Broncos control their fate. Wins over the Bengals, Raiders and Chargers within the next three weeks vault them into the postseason. The Broncos are most long-established over the Bengals this week. Alternatively, my models dangle this game as in level of truth a coin flip. The largest stumbling block left initiatives to be the Chargers (in L.A.) in Week 17.

Projected to murder playoffs: 4.4%

Linked to Denver, the Raiders wish to lift their next three video games (at Browns, vs. Broncos, at Colts) to earn into the playoffs. Indianapolis is the biggest stumbling block closing, on the different hand it’s a ways also price noting that the Broncos forecast to beat Las Vegas in Week 16 in 56.1 percent of simulations.

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